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タイトル: 7.地震予知論試論
その他のタイトル: 7. Prediction of Magnitude and Occurrence Time of Earthquakes
著者: 力武, 常次
著者(別言語): Rikitake, Tsuneji
発行日: 1969年3月20日
出版者: 東京大学地震研究所
掲載誌情報: 東京大学地震研究所彙報. 第47冊第1号, 1969.3.20, pp. 107-128
抄録: Changes in probability of an earthquake, when it is assumed to occur in a specified area, to fall in a magnitude and time range are studied on the assumption 1) that the seismicity, especially for large earthquakes, is well-established in the area concerned and 2) that anomalous crustal deformation, anomalous geomagnetic change and foreshock activity are observed one by one. In estimating probabilities, empirical relations between magnitude or occurrence time and premonitory effects are made use of. As can be seen in Fig. 6, the probability of taking on a magnitude value between a range becomes high for a certain range as we add observations of a different kind. It may be said that magnitude prediction can be achieved with a fairly high accuracy, whereas occurrence-time prediction is of lower accuracy because of scanty data. The probabilities thus estimated can be illustrated on a t-M plane as can be seen in Figs. 9, 10 and 11. According to the prediction procedure as proposed by the Geodetic Council, an area in which an anomalous geophysical element is found is called the "area for special observation" and, if the anomaly is evaluated by a committee consisting of specialists from universities and governmental institutions to have something to do with earthquake occurrence, the area is nominated to an "area for concentrated observation". Such a nomination procedure can be objectively performed relying on probabilites estimated in a way studied in this paper.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2261/12452
ISSN: 00408972
出現カテゴリ:東京大学地震研究所彙報
東京大学地震研究所彙報

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