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タイトル: 9.京都が震度V以上の地震に襲われる確率
その他のタイトル: 9. Future Probability of a Coming Earthquake with Intensity V or more in the Kyoto Area
著者: 宇佐美, 龍夫
久本, 壮一
著者(別言語): Usami, Ttsuo
Hisamoto, Soichi
発行日: 1971年9月30日
出版者: 東京大学地震研究所
掲載誌情報: 東京大学地震研究所彙報. 第49冊第1/3号, 1971.9.30, pp. 115-125
抄録: The probability of a future earthquake with intensity For more in the Kyoto area was studied using historical data from 599 A.D. to the present. Following Kawasumi's method, the periodicity with 38.5 year period was detected. Ogawara's method was also examined. Stationary random process was found to be acceptable. Assuming that the two characteristics, namely, the periodicity with 38.5 year period and stationary randomness are intrinsic to the sequence of big earthquakes in the Kyoto area, a trial is made to find a model of earthquake occurrence satisfying the two characteristics. Among the three models employed the one, in which the number of earthquakes in one period (38.5 year) follows the Poisson's distribution and the probability density of earthquake occurrence in one period follows cosine law (see equation (1)), satisfies the two characteristics.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2261/12582
ISSN: 00408972


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