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タイトル: 減分主義の政治 : 日ソ さけます漁業交渉、1957年~1977年
その他のタイトル: The Politics of Decrementalism : The Soviet-Japanese Fishery Negotiations in the Northwest Pacific, 1957-1977
著者: 猪口, 孝
著者(別言語): Inoguchi, Takashi
発行日: 1978年3月
出版者: 東京大学東洋文化研究所
掲載誌情報: 東洋文化研究所紀要. 第74冊, 1978.3, pp. 1-27
抄録: Locating the Soviet-Japanese salmon catch negotiations of 1957-1977 in the broader perspective of emerging ocean politics, a time series model of negotiation processes and outcomes is constructed to thow that the negotiations can best be characterized as the politics of decrementalism.A state space equation model, as derived from modern control theory, is constructed to show the nature and characteristics of the decremental outcomes in the salmon catch negotiations from 1957 to 1976, with the major policy intervention of 1962 (i. e., the large scale expansion of the regulated areas) taken into account.The model is also used to“predict”the 1977 negotiation outcomes on the basis of parameters recursively estimated from the 1957-1976 data set.The model“predicts”very well the 1977 negotiation outcomes.In the light of the good predictive performance of the model, some conclusions and implications for conflict and its resolution in the context of Soviet-Japanese relations as well as in the context of the new ocean order are drawn.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2261/2212
ISSN: 05638089


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