Recent discussion on the abnormal crustal movement in the Boso-peninsula raised the fear of a coming earthquake in the Kwanto-area. The present study, stimulated by this phenomenon, aimed at finding the probability of a future earthquake with intensity V or more in Tokyo. Earthquakes from 818 to 1969 were used. Kawasumi's method pertaining to the periodicity, and Ogawara's one which picks up the durability and the intermediate method were examined. A period of 36 years was found from Kawasumi's method. From the latter method, the probability of a coming earthquake within τ'years from the present, under the assumption that τ0 years have elapsed after the last earthquake, is calculated and arranged in graphical forms.
雑誌名
東京大學地震研究所彙報 = Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo
巻
48
号
2
ページ
331 - 340
発行年
1970-06-10
ISSN
00408972
書誌レコードID
AN00162258
フォーマット
application/pdf
日本十進分類法
453
出版者
東京大学地震研究所
出版者別名
Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo
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18.東京が震度V以上の地震に襲われる確率
ji0482012.pdf
(638.78KB)
