WEKO3
アイテム
Cruising is Risky Business
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/26653
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/26653b9a73e36-5718-4eff-9f8c-f4ef8f10c84b
| Item type | テクニカルレポート / Technical Report(1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2013-05-31 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | Cruising is Risky Business | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Asymmetric responses to shocks | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Conditional volatility models | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Cruise passenger arrivals | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Efficient port management | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | High and low tourist seasons | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | International tourism | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||
| タイプ | technical report | |||||
| アクセス権 | ||||||
| アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||
| 著者 |
Bartolomé, Ana
× Bartolomé, Ana× McAleer, Michael× Ramos, Vicente× Rey-Maquieira, Javier |
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| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Faculty of Economics and Business University of the Balearic Islands | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Tinbergen Institute The Netherlands | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE) Faculty of Economics University of Tokyo | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Faculty of Economics and Business University of the Balearic Islands | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Faculty of Economics and Business University of the Balearic Islands | |||||
| 抄録 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
| 内容記述 | As the fastest growing sector within the international tourism industry, having grown at roughly double the rate of international tourism as a whole, the cruise liner business has shown impressive growth in the North American and European markets. For port management purposes, as well as for transport policy, it is essential to be able to forecast accurately cruise passenger arrivals and their variability. In the presence of time-varying variances (or volatility), it is crucial to model such volatility in order to provide sensible forecast intervals in addition to the forecast themselves. Time-varying volatility in port management is important because governments and businesses need to be aware of the uncertainty associated with the number of cruise passenger arrivals and their associated growth. In calculating income elasticities, port taxes and tourist taxes, it is essential to obtain accurate estimates of cruise passenger arrivals and their volatility. Moreover, in an international context in which natural disasters, terrorism, crime and ethnic conflicts, among others, have significant impacts on tourism, it is crucial to assess the persistence of shocks on cruise passenger arrivals for effective crisis management plans, including different forms of co-operation among ports facing similar shocks. Appropriate models are required to enable optimal private and public decision making in designing ports for cruise ships. Daily cruise passenger arrivals data for the three major ports in the Balearic Islands, Spain, namely Palma, Ibiza and Mahon, for the period 1997-2006, as well as for the high cruise season for each island,are analyzed using alternative conditional mean and conditional volatility models in order to provide empirical support for purposes of optimal decision making. Four different types of asymmetries are analyzed according to the positive and negative shocks to daily cruise passenger arrivals, as well as from distinctions between the high and low cruise seasons. The estimates of cruise passenger arrivals and their volatility are generally found to be sensible and to have valid statistical properties. Likelihood ratio tests of the constancy of coefficients in the high and low cruise seasons indicate that the weekly delayed response of cruise passenger arrivals differ significantly spatially across islands and temporally across seasons. | |||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | 本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと | |||||
| 書誌情報 |
Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F 巻 CIRJE-F-664, 発行日 2009-09 |
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| 書誌レコードID | ||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
| 収録物識別子 | AA11450569 | |||||
| フォーマット | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | application/pdf | |||||
| 日本十進分類法 | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | NDC | |||||
| 主題 | 335 | |||||
| 出版者 | ||||||
| 出版者 | 日本経済国際共同センター | |||||
| 出版者別名 | ||||||
| Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy | ||||||
| 関係URI | ||||||
| 識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
| 関連識別子 | http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf664ab.html | |||||
