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Modelling and Forecasting Noisy Realized Volatility
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/28502
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/285024df73f11-8b4a-4be4-a57f-37d28c80066e
| Item type | テクニカルレポート / Technical Report(1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2013-05-31 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | Modelling and Forecasting Noisy Realized Volatility | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | realized volatility | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | diffusion | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | financial econometrics | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | measurement errors | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | forecasting | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | model evaluation | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | goodness-of-fit | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||
| タイプ | technical report | |||||
| アクセス権 | ||||||
| アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||
| 著者 |
Asai, Manabu
× Asai, Manabu× McAleer, Michael× Medeiros, Marcelo C. |
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| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Faculty of Economics Soka University, Japan | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Tinbergen Institute The Netherlands | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE) Faculty of Economics University of Tokyo | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Department of Economics Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro | |||||
| 抄録 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
| 内容記述 | Several methods have recently been proposed in the ultra high frequency financial literature to remove the effects of microstructure noise and to obtain consistent estimates of the integrated volatility (IV) as a measure of ex-post daily volatility. Even bias-corrected and consistent (modified) realized volatility (RV) estimates of the integrated volatility can contain residual microstructure noise and other measurement errors. Such noise is called "realized volatility error". As such measurement errors ignored, we need to take account of them in estimating and forecasting IV. This paper investigates through Monte Carlo simulations the effects of RV errors on estimating and forecasting IV with RV data. It is found that: (i) neglecting RV errors can lead to serious bias in estimators due to model misspecification; (ii) the effects of RV errors on one-step ahead forecasts are minor when consistent estimators are used and when the number of intraday observations is large; and (iii) even the partially corrected R2 recently proposed in the literature should be fully corrected for evaluating forecasts. This paper proposes a full correction of R2, which can be applied to linear and nonlinear, short and long memory models. An empirical example for S&P 500 data is used to demonstrate that neglecting RV errors can lead to serious bias in estimating the model of integrated volatility, and that the new method proposed here can eliminate the effects of the RV noise. The empirical results also show that the full correction for R2 is necessary for an accurate description of goodness-of-fit. | |||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | 本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと | |||||
| 書誌情報 |
Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F 巻 CIRJE-F-669, 発行日 2009-09 |
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| 書誌レコードID | ||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
| 収録物識別子 | AA11450569 | |||||
| フォーマット | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | application/pdf | |||||
| 日本十進分類法 | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | NDC | |||||
| 主題 | 335 | |||||
| 出版者 | ||||||
| 出版者 | 日本経済国際共同センター | |||||
| 出版者別名 | ||||||
| Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy | ||||||
| 関係URI | ||||||
| 識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
| 関連識別子 | http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf669ab.html | |||||
