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How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us About Inflation?
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/55420
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/55420687f7a2b-658f-47ec-bbc0-e584bf838581
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
wp019.pdf (1.2 MB)
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| Item type | テクニカルレポート / Technical Report(1) | |||||
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| 公開日 | 2015-05-11 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | How Much Do Official Price Indexes Tell Us About Inflation? | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||
| タイプ | technical report | |||||
| 著者 |
Handbury, Jessie
× Handbury, Jessie× Watanabe, Tsutomu× Weinstein, David E. |
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| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | University of Pennsylvania | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | University of Tokyo | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Columbia University | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | NBER | |||||
| 抄録 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
| 内容記述 | Official price indexes, such as the CPI, are imperfect indicators of inflation calculated using ad hoc price formulae different from the theoretically well-founded inflation indexes favored by economists. This paper provides the first estimate of how accurately the CPI informs us about “true” inflation. We use the largest price and quantity dataset ever employed in economics to build a Törnqvist inflation index for Japan between 1989 and 2010. Our comparison of this true inflation index with the CPI indicates that the CPI bias is not constant but depends on the level of inflation. We show the informativeness of the CPI rises with inflation. When measured inflation is low (less than 2.4% per year) the CPI is a poor predictor of true inflation even over 12-month periods. Outside this range, the CPI is a much better measure of inflation. We find that the U.S. PCE Deflator methodology is superior to the Japanese CPI methodology but still exhibits substantial measurement error and biases rendering it a problematic predictor of inflation in low inflation regimes as well. | |||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | 2012～2016年度科学研究費補助金[基盤研究(S)]「長期デフレの解明」(研究代表者 東京大学経済学研究科・渡辺努, 課題番号：24223003) | |||||
| 書誌情報 |
JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S) Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan Working Paper Series 巻 019, 発行日 2013-10 |
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| 出版者 | ||||||
| 出版者 | UTokyo Price Project | |||||
| 関係URI | ||||||
| 識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
| 関連識別子 | http://www.price.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/researchdata/ | |||||
