Faculty of Economics Maejo University, Thailand
Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan
Econometrics Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam
Tinbergen Institute The Netherlands
抄録
The paper examines the performance of four multivariate volatility models, namely CCC, VARMA-GARCH, DCC and BEKK, for the crude oil spot and futures returns of two major benchmark international crude oil markets, Brent and WTI, to calculate optimal portfolio weights and optimal hedge ratios, and to suggest a crude oil hedge strategy. The empirical results show that the optimal portfolio weights of all multivariate volatility models for Brent suggest holding futures in larger proportions than spot. For WTI, however, DCC and BEKK suggest holding crude oil futures to spot, but CCC and VARMA-GARCH suggest holding crude oil spot to futures. In addition, the calculated optimal hedge ratios (OHRs) from each multivariate conditional volatility model give the time-varying hedge ratios, and recommend to short in crude oil futures with a high proportion of one dollar long in crude oil spot. Finally, the hedging effectiveness indicates that DCC (BEKK) is the best (worst) model for OHR calculation in terms of reducing the variance of the portfolio.
内容記述
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雑誌名
Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F
巻
CIRJE-F-704
発行年
2010-01
書誌レコードID
AA11450569
フォーマット
application/pdf
日本十進分類法
335
出版者
日本経済国際共同センター
出版者別名
Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy
Crude Oil Hedging Strategies Using Dynamic Multivariate GARCH
