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7.地震予知論試論
https://doi.org/10.15083/0000033390
https://doi.org/10.15083/00000333900222d93d-0a7f-41dd-9f53-dacbe559cec9
名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
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ji0471007.pdf (1.1 MB)
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Item type | 紀要論文 / Departmental Bulletin Paper(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2008-05-30 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | 7.地震予知論試論 | |||||
言語 | ja | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | jpn | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
タイプ | departmental bulletin paper | |||||
ID登録 | ||||||
ID登録 | 10.15083/0000033390 | |||||
ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||
その他のタイトル | ||||||
その他のタイトル | 7. Prediction of Magnitude and Occurrence Time of Earthquakes | |||||
著者 |
力武, 常次
× 力武, 常次 |
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著者別名 | ||||||
識別子 | 130369 | |||||
識別子Scheme | WEKO | |||||
姓名 | Rikitake, Tsuneji | |||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | 地震研究所 | |||||
抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Changes in probability of an earthquake, when it is assumed to occur in a specified area, to fall in a magnitude and time range are studied on the assumption 1) that the seismicity, especially for large earthquakes, is well-established in the area concerned and 2) that anomalous crustal deformation, anomalous geomagnetic change and foreshock activity are observed one by one. In estimating probabilities, empirical relations between magnitude or occurrence time and premonitory effects are made use of. As can be seen in Fig. 6, the probability of taking on a magnitude value between a range becomes high for a certain range as we add observations of a different kind. It may be said that magnitude prediction can be achieved with a fairly high accuracy, whereas occurrence-time prediction is of lower accuracy because of scanty data. The probabilities thus estimated can be illustrated on a t-M plane as can be seen in Figs. 9, 10 and 11. According to the prediction procedure as proposed by the Geodetic Council, an area in which an anomalous geophysical element is found is called the ""area for special observation"" and, if the anomaly is evaluated by a committee consisting of specialists from universities and governmental institutions to have something to do with earthquake occurrence, the area is nominated to an ""area for concentrated observation"". Such a nomination procedure can be objectively performed relying on probabilites estimated in a way studied in this paper. | |||||
書誌情報 |
東京大學地震研究所彙報 = Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo 巻 47, 号 1, p. 107-128, 発行日 1969-03-20 |
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ISSN | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
収録物識別子 | 00408972 | |||||
書誌レコードID | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
収録物識別子 | AN00162258 | |||||
フォーマット | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | application/pdf | |||||
日本十進分類法 | ||||||
主題 | 453 | |||||
主題Scheme | NDC | |||||
出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | 東京大学地震研究所 | |||||
出版者別名 | ||||||
Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo |