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Does the FOMC Have Expertise, and Can It Forecast?
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/26669
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/26669eeb6b6b5-cd9b-424c-90f5-e3bad982f63c
Item type | テクニカルレポート / Technical Report(1) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
公開日 | 2013-05-31 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Does the FOMC Have Expertise, and Can It Forecast? | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | Direct test of FOMC expertise | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | FOMC forecast | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | forecast performance | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | replicable FOMC forecast | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | staff forecast | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||
タイプ | technical report | |||||
アクセス権 | ||||||
アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||
アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||
著者 |
Franses, Philip Hans
× Franses, Philip Hans× McAleer, Michael× Legerstee, Rianne |
|||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Econometric Institute Erasmus University Rotterdam | |||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam | |||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Tinbergen Institute The Netherlands | |||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE) Faculty of Economics University of Tokyo | |||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Econometric Institute and Tinbergen | |||||
抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | The primary purpose of the paper is to answer the following two questions regarding the performance of the influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System, in comparison with the forecasts contained in the “Greenbooks” of the professional staff of the Board of Governors: Does the FOMC have expertise, and can it forecast better than the staff? The FOMC forecasts that are analyzed in practice are nonreplicable forecasts. In order to evaluate such forecasts, this paper develops a model to generate replicable FOMC forecasts, and compares the staff forecasts, non-replicable FOMC forecasts, and replicable FOMC forecasts, considers optimal forecasts and efficient estimation methods, and presents a direct test of FOMC expertise on nonreplicable FOMC forecasts. The empirical analysis of Romer and Romer (2008) is reexamined to evaluate whether their criticisms of the FOMC’s forecasting performance should be accepted unreservedly, or might be open to alternative interpretations. | |||||
内容記述 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | 本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと | |||||
書誌情報 |
Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F 巻 CIRJE-F-648, 発行日 2009-08 |
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書誌レコードID | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
収録物識別子 | AA11450569 | |||||
フォーマット | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | application/pdf | |||||
日本十進分類法 | ||||||
主題 | 335 | |||||
主題Scheme | NDC | |||||
出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | 日本経済国際共同センター | |||||
出版者別名 | ||||||
Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy | ||||||
関係URI | ||||||
識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
関連識別子 | http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf648ab.html |