WEKO3
アイテム
{"_buckets": {"deposit": "205b5066-12a5-4ef7-8208-a089be2f7f93"}, "_deposit": {"id": "42118", "owners": [], "pid": {"revision_id": 0, "type": "depid", "value": "42118"}, "status": "published"}, "_oai": {"id": "oai:repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp:00042118", "sets": ["7436", "7434"]}, "item_8_biblio_info_7": {"attribute_name": "書誌情報", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"bibliographicIssueDates": {"bibliographicIssueDate": "2009-08", "bibliographicIssueDateType": "Issued"}, "bibliographicVolumeNumber": "CIRJE-F-637", "bibliographic_titles": [{"bibliographic_title": "Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F"}]}]}, "item_8_description_13": {"attribute_name": "フォーマット", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_description": "application/pdf", "subitem_description_type": "Other"}]}, "item_8_description_5": {"attribute_name": "抄録", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_description": "A government’s ability to forecast key economic fundamentals accurately can affect business confidence, consumer sentiment, and foreign direct investment, among others. A government forecast based on an econometric model is replicable, whereas one that is not fully based on an econometric model is non-replicable. Governments typically provide non-replicable forecasts (or, expert forecasts) of economic fundamentals, such as the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate. In this paper, we develop a methodology to evaluate non-replicable forecasts. We argue that in order to do so, one needs to retrieve from the non-replicable forecast its replicable component, and that it is the difference in accuracy between these two that matters. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the proposed methodological approach. Our main finding is that it is the undocumented knowledge of the Taiwanese government that reduces forecast errors substantially.", "subitem_description_type": "Abstract"}]}, "item_8_description_6": {"attribute_name": "内容記述", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_description": "本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと", "subitem_description_type": "Other"}]}, "item_8_publisher_20": {"attribute_name": "出版者", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_publisher": "日本経済国際共同センター"}]}, "item_8_relation_25": {"attribute_name": "関係URI", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_relation_type_id": {"subitem_relation_type_id_text": "http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf637ab.html", "subitem_relation_type_select": "URI"}}]}, "item_8_source_id_10": {"attribute_name": "書誌レコードID", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_source_identifier": "AA11450569", "subitem_source_identifier_type": "NCID"}]}, "item_8_subject_15": {"attribute_name": "日本十進分類法", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_subject": "335", "subitem_subject_scheme": "NDC"}]}, "item_8_text_21": {"attribute_name": "出版者別名", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_text_value": "Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy"}]}, "item_8_text_34": {"attribute_name": "資源タイプ", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_text_value": "Discussion Paper"}]}, "item_8_text_4": {"attribute_name": "著者所属", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_text_value": "Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan"}, {"subitem_text_value": "Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics, The Netherlands"}, {"subitem_text_value": "Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands"}, {"subitem_text_value": "Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands"}, {"subitem_text_value": "Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy Faculty of Economics University of Tokyo"}]}, "item_access_right": {"attribute_name": "アクセス権", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_access_right": "metadata only access", "subitem_access_right_uri": "http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb"}]}, "item_creator": {"attribute_name": "著者", "attribute_type": "creator", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"creatorNames": [{"creatorName": "Chang, Chia-Lin"}], "nameIdentifiers": [{"nameIdentifier": "96936", "nameIdentifierScheme": "WEKO"}]}, {"creatorNames": [{"creatorName": "Franses, Philip Hans"}], "nameIdentifiers": [{"nameIdentifier": "96937", "nameIdentifierScheme": "WEKO"}]}, {"creatorNames": [{"creatorName": "McAleer, Michael"}], "nameIdentifiers": [{"nameIdentifier": "96938", "nameIdentifierScheme": "WEKO"}]}]}, "item_keyword": {"attribute_name": "キーワード", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_subject": "Government forecasts", "subitem_subject_scheme": "Other"}, {"subitem_subject": "generated regressors", "subitem_subject_scheme": "Other"}, {"subitem_subject": "replicable government forecasts", "subitem_subject_scheme": "Other"}, {"subitem_subject": "nonreplicable government forecasts", "subitem_subject_scheme": "Other"}, {"subitem_subject": "initial forecasts", "subitem_subject_scheme": "Other"}, {"subitem_subject": "revised forecasts", "subitem_subject_scheme": "Other"}, {"subitem_subject": "JEL classifications: C53, C22, E27, E37.", "subitem_subject_scheme": "Other"}]}, "item_language": {"attribute_name": "言語", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_language": "eng"}]}, "item_resource_type": {"attribute_name": "資源タイプ", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"resourcetype": "technical report", "resourceuri": "http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh"}]}, "item_title": "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan", "item_titles": {"attribute_name": "タイトル", "attribute_value_mlt": [{"subitem_title": "How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan"}]}, "item_type_id": "8", "owner": "1", "path": ["7436", "7434"], "permalink_uri": "http://hdl.handle.net/2261/26680", "pubdate": {"attribute_name": "公開日", "attribute_value": "2013-05-31"}, "publish_date": "2013-05-31", "publish_status": "0", "recid": "42118", "relation": {}, "relation_version_is_last": true, "title": ["How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan"], "weko_shared_id": null}
How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/26680
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/26680ec92bdce-0eab-4759-b187-d12d278a5cb8
Item type | テクニカルレポート / Technical Report(1) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
公開日 | 2013-05-31 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | Government forecasts | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | generated regressors | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | replicable government forecasts | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | nonreplicable government forecasts | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | initial forecasts | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | revised forecasts | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | JEL classifications: C53, C22, E27, E37. | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||
タイプ | technical report | |||||
アクセス権 | ||||||
アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||
アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||
著者 |
Chang, Chia-Lin
× Chang, Chia-Lin× Franses, Philip Hans× McAleer, Michael |
|||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan | |||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics, The Netherlands | |||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands | |||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands | |||||
著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy Faculty of Economics University of Tokyo | |||||
抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | A government’s ability to forecast key economic fundamentals accurately can affect business confidence, consumer sentiment, and foreign direct investment, among others. A government forecast based on an econometric model is replicable, whereas one that is not fully based on an econometric model is non-replicable. Governments typically provide non-replicable forecasts (or, expert forecasts) of economic fundamentals, such as the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate. In this paper, we develop a methodology to evaluate non-replicable forecasts. We argue that in order to do so, one needs to retrieve from the non-replicable forecast its replicable component, and that it is the difference in accuracy between these two that matters. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the proposed methodological approach. Our main finding is that it is the undocumented knowledge of the Taiwanese government that reduces forecast errors substantially. | |||||
内容記述 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | 本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと | |||||
書誌情報 |
Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F 巻 CIRJE-F-637, 発行日 2009-08 |
|||||
書誌レコードID | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
収録物識別子 | AA11450569 | |||||
フォーマット | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | application/pdf | |||||
日本十進分類法 | ||||||
主題 | 335 | |||||
主題Scheme | NDC | |||||
出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | 日本経済国際共同センター | |||||
出版者別名 | ||||||
Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy | ||||||
関係URI | ||||||
識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
関連識別子 | http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf637ab.html |