2024-03-28T20:57:38Z
https://repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/oai
oai:repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp:00042675
2022-12-19T04:17:50Z
62:377:7438
9:7435:7439
Estimating Quality Adjusted Commercial Property Price Indexes Using Japanese REIT Data
Shimizu, Chihiro
98136
Diewert, W. Erwin
98137
Nishimura, Kiyohiko G.
98138
Watanabe, Tsutomu
98139
JEL Classification Number: E3; G19
REIT
quality adjusted price index
hedonic regression
Tobin’s q
risk premium
We propose a new method to estimate quality adjusted commercial property price indexes using real estate investment trust (REIT) data. Our method is based on the present value approach, but the way the denominator (i.e., the discount rate) and the numerator (i.e., cash flows from properties) are estimated differs from the traditional method. We run a hedonic regression to estimate the quality adjusted discount rate based on the share prices of REITs, which can be regarded as the stock market’s valuation of the set of properties owned by the REITs. As for the numerator, we use rental prices associated only with new rental contracts rather than those associated with all existing contracts. Using a dataset with prices and cash flows for about 400 commercial properties included in Japanese REITs for the period 2001 to 2013, we find that our price index signals turning points much earlier than an appraisal-based price index; specifically, our index peaks in the second quarter of 2007, while the appraisal-based price index exhibits a turnaround only in the third quarter of 2008. Our results suggest that the share prices of REITs provide useful information in constructing commercial property price indexes.
2012~2016年度科学研究費補助金[基盤研究(S)]「長期デフレの解明」(研究代表者 東京大学経済学研究科・渡辺努, 課題番号:24223003)
technical report
UTokyo Price Project
2015-02
application/pdf
JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S) Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan Working Paper Series
066
https://repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/record/42675/files/wp066.pdf
eng
http://www.price.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/researchdata/