{"created":"2021-03-01T06:34:34.552429+00:00","id":17265,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"288e7cff-2d67-4722-a51d-45cda0d06f85"},"_deposit":{"id":"17265","owners":[],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"17265"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp:00017265","sets":["55:864:972:973","9:504:867:974:975"]},"item_4_alternative_title_1":{"attribute_name":"その他のタイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_alternative_title":"Censored Probit Analysis of the Self-Selection during Civil Wars"}]},"item_4_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2004-03-19","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicIssueNumber":"5-6","bibliographicPageEnd":"272","bibliographicPageStart":"239","bibliographicVolumeNumber":"55","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"社會科學研究"}]}]},"item_4_description_13":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_4_description_5":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"内戦に関与した指導者や兵士連は,内戦終結と同時に収奪機会や権力の喪失,戦争犯罪での訴追等のリスクにさらされる.このため彼らは自己保身から意図的に内戦を継続する動機を持つ.この場合たとえ秩序回復が容易であるはずの事例においても内戦は終結しにくくなり,分析におけるセレクション・バイアスを生む.本研究は,ヘックマン(Heckman)流の二段階の統計手法によってこのバイアスを補正し,国連の介入や政治体制等が与える影響について新たな知見を導いた.すなわち,国連の介入は紛争終結には有効ではないが,秩序回復には非常に有効であった.一方,国連以外の介入は逆の傾向が認められた.その他,窮地に追い込まれた政治指導者は起死回生を図ってハイリスク・ハイリターンな政策を追求しがちであるという「起死回生のギャンブル」仮説,資源収奪の誘因に注目した「強欲」仮説等も支持された.以上の分析に基づいて秩序回復の確率に関する予測も試みた.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"},{"subitem_description":"End of civil wars entails several risks for the leaders and soldiers. Confronting these risks, the leaders and soldiers of civil wars may have rational motives to prevent the war termination. This self-selection process by those engaged in the battle causes numerous protracted civil wars around the world that otherwise would have ended earlier. This paper applies censored probit analysis, correcting for the selection bias, to the data of civil wars after the Second World War. The main result shows that a UN intervention is effective for the recovery of the order, but less so for the cessation of the battle. An intervention by a third party other than the UN is effective for cessation of battles, though not for the recovery of the order.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_4_full_name_3":{"attribute_name":"著者別名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"107888","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}],"names":[{"name":"Hayashi, Hikaru"}]}]},"item_4_publisher_20":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"東京大学社会科学研究所"}]},"item_4_source_id_10":{"attribute_name":"書誌レコードID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"AN00108966","subitem_source_identifier_type":"NCID"}]},"item_4_source_id_8":{"attribute_name":"ISSN","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"03873307","subitem_source_identifier_type":"ISSN"}]},"item_4_subject_15":{"attribute_name":"日本十進分類法","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"300","subitem_subject_scheme":"NDC"}]},"item_4_text_21":{"attribute_name":"出版者別名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Institute of Social Science, The University of Tokyo"}]},"item_4_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"東京大学大学院総合文化研究科国際社会科学専攻:日本学術振興会"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"林, 光"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"107887","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]}]},"item_files":{"attribute_name":"ファイル情報","attribute_type":"file","attribute_value_mlt":[{"accessrole":"open_date","date":[{"dateType":"Available","dateValue":"2017-06-26"}],"displaytype":"detail","filename":"KJ00004192041.pdf","filesize":[{"value":"2.5 MB"}],"format":"application/pdf","licensetype":"license_note","mimetype":"application/pdf","url":{"label":"KJ00004192041.pdf","url":"https://repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/record/17265/files/KJ00004192041.pdf"},"version_id":"c5ab9984-99b0-49d6-9b96-cbf63a74506f"}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"内戦","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"統計","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"国連","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"介入","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"セレクション・バイアス","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"jpn"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"departmental bulletin paper","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501"}]},"item_title":"内戦におけるセレクション・バイアスの推定と秩序回復の予測","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"内戦におけるセレクション・バイアスの推定と秩序回復の予測"}]},"item_type_id":"4","owner":"1","path":["973","975"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2008-09-19"},"publish_date":"2008-09-19","publish_status":"0","recid":"17265","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["内戦におけるセレクション・バイアスの推定と秩序回復の予測"],"weko_creator_id":"1","weko_shared_id":null},"updated":"2022-12-19T03:55:57.610923+00:00"}