{"created":"2021-03-01T07:01:57.074603+00:00","id":42107,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"8a7d8dd9-a6c2-4166-836d-3e6de3a7d73b"},"_deposit":{"id":"42107","owners":[],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"42107"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp:00042107","sets":["62:7433:7434","9:7435:7436"]},"item_8_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2009-08","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicVolumeNumber":"CIRJE-F-648","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F"}]}]},"item_8_description_13":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_8_description_5":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"The primary purpose of the paper is to answer the following two questions regarding the performance of the influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System, in comparison with the forecasts contained in the “Greenbooks” of the professional staff of the Board of Governors: Does the FOMC have expertise, and can it forecast better than the staff? The FOMC forecasts that are analyzed in practice are nonreplicable forecasts. In order to evaluate such forecasts, this paper develops a model to generate replicable FOMC forecasts, and compares the staff forecasts, non-replicable FOMC forecasts, and replicable FOMC forecasts, considers optimal forecasts and efficient estimation methods, and presents a direct test of FOMC expertise on nonreplicable FOMC forecasts. The empirical analysis of Romer and Romer (2008) is reexamined to evaluate whether their criticisms of the FOMC’s forecasting performance should be accepted unreservedly, or might be open to alternative interpretations.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_8_description_6":{"attribute_name":"内容記述","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_8_publisher_20":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"日本経済国際共同センター"}]},"item_8_relation_25":{"attribute_name":"関係URI","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_relation_type_id":{"subitem_relation_type_id_text":"http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf648ab.html","subitem_relation_type_select":"URI"}}]},"item_8_source_id_10":{"attribute_name":"書誌レコードID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"AA11450569","subitem_source_identifier_type":"NCID"}]},"item_8_subject_15":{"attribute_name":"日本十進分類法","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"335","subitem_subject_scheme":"NDC"}]},"item_8_text_21":{"attribute_name":"出版者別名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy"}]},"item_8_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Econometric Institute Erasmus University Rotterdam"},{"subitem_text_value":"Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam"},{"subitem_text_value":"Tinbergen Institute The Netherlands"},{"subitem_text_value":"Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE) Faculty of Economics University of Tokyo"},{"subitem_text_value":"Econometric Institute and Tinbergen"}]},"item_access_right":{"attribute_name":"アクセス権","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_access_right":"metadata only access","subitem_access_right_uri":"http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Franses, Philip Hans"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"96906","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"McAleer, Michael"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"96907","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Legerstee, Rianne"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"96908","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"Direct test of FOMC expertise","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"FOMC forecast","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"forecast performance","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"replicable FOMC forecast","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"staff forecast","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"eng"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"technical report","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh"}]},"item_title":"Does the FOMC Have Expertise, and Can It Forecast?","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"Does the FOMC Have Expertise, and Can It Forecast?"}]},"item_type_id":"8","owner":"1","path":["7436","7434"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2013-05-31"},"publish_date":"2013-05-31","publish_status":"0","recid":"42107","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["Does the FOMC Have Expertise, and Can It Forecast?"],"weko_creator_id":"1","weko_shared_id":null},"updated":"2022-12-19T04:14:18.288446+00:00"}