{"created":"2021-03-01T07:01:57.822600+00:00","id":42118,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"205b5066-12a5-4ef7-8208-a089be2f7f93"},"_deposit":{"id":"42118","owners":[],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"42118"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp:00042118","sets":["62:7433:7434","9:7435:7436"]},"item_8_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2009-08","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicVolumeNumber":"CIRJE-F-637","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F"}]}]},"item_8_description_13":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_8_description_5":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"A government’s ability to forecast key economic fundamentals accurately can affect business confidence, consumer sentiment, and foreign direct investment, among others. A government forecast based on an econometric model is replicable, whereas one that is not fully based on an econometric model is non-replicable. Governments typically provide non-replicable forecasts (or, expert forecasts) of economic fundamentals, such as the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate. In this paper, we develop a methodology to evaluate non-replicable forecasts. We argue that in order to do so, one needs to retrieve from the non-replicable forecast its replicable component, and that it is the difference in accuracy between these two that matters. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the proposed methodological approach. Our main finding is that it is the undocumented knowledge of the Taiwanese government that reduces forecast errors substantially.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_8_description_6":{"attribute_name":"内容記述","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_8_publisher_20":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"日本経済国際共同センター"}]},"item_8_relation_25":{"attribute_name":"関係URI","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_relation_type_id":{"subitem_relation_type_id_text":"http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2009/2009cf637ab.html","subitem_relation_type_select":"URI"}}]},"item_8_source_id_10":{"attribute_name":"書誌レコードID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"AA11450569","subitem_source_identifier_type":"NCID"}]},"item_8_subject_15":{"attribute_name":"日本十進分類法","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"335","subitem_subject_scheme":"NDC"}]},"item_8_text_21":{"attribute_name":"出版者別名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy"}]},"item_8_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Department of Applied Economics National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan"},{"subitem_text_value":"Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics, The Netherlands"},{"subitem_text_value":"Econometric Institute Erasmus School of Economics Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands"},{"subitem_text_value":"Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands"},{"subitem_text_value":"Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy Faculty of Economics University of Tokyo"}]},"item_access_right":{"attribute_name":"アクセス権","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_access_right":"metadata only access","subitem_access_right_uri":"http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Chang, Chia-Lin"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"96936","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Franses, Philip Hans"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"96937","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"McAleer, Michael"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"96938","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"Government forecasts","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"generated regressors","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"replicable government forecasts","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"nonreplicable government forecasts","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"initial forecasts","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"revised forecasts","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"JEL classifications: C53, C22, E27, E37.","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"eng"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"technical report","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh"}]},"item_title":"How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan"}]},"item_type_id":"8","owner":"1","path":["7436","7434"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2013-05-31"},"publish_date":"2013-05-31","publish_status":"0","recid":"42118","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["How Accurate are Government Forecasts of Economic Fundamentals? The Case of Taiwan"],"weko_creator_id":"1","weko_shared_id":null},"updated":"2022-12-19T04:17:23.107286+00:00"}