{"created":"2021-03-01T07:02:00.490513+00:00","id":42157,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"85ddca6a-1d16-49c4-98f1-08a3ca34b287"},"_deposit":{"id":"42157","owners":[],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"42157"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp:00042157","sets":["62:7433:7434","9:7435:7436"]},"item_8_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2010-04","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicVolumeNumber":"CIRJE-F-736","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F"}]}]},"item_8_description_13":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_8_description_5":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"Macro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average, as the actual value is approached. Otherwise, forecast updates would be neutral. The paper proposes a methodology to test whether forecast updates are progressive and whether econometric models are useful in updating forecasts. The data set for the empirical analysis are for Taiwan, where we have three decades of quarterly data available of forecasts and updates of the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate. The actual series for both the inflation rate and the real GDP growth rate are always released by the government one quarter after the release of the revised forecast, and the actual values are not revised after they have been released. Our empirical results suggest that the forecast updates for Taiwan are progressive, and can be explained predominantly by intuition. Additionally, the one-, two- and three-quarter forecast errors are predictable using publicly available information for both the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate, which suggests that the forecasts can be improved.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_8_description_6":{"attribute_name":"内容記述","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_8_publisher_20":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"日本経済国際共同センター"}]},"item_8_relation_25":{"attribute_name":"関係URI","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_relation_type_id":{"subitem_relation_type_id_text":"http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2010/2010cf736ab.html","subitem_relation_type_select":"URI"}}]},"item_8_source_id_10":{"attribute_name":"書誌レコードID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"AA11450569","subitem_source_identifier_type":"NCID"}]},"item_8_subject_15":{"attribute_name":"日本十進分類法","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"335","subitem_subject_scheme":"NDC"}]},"item_8_text_21":{"attribute_name":"出版者別名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy"}]},"item_8_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan"},{"subitem_text_value":"Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands"},{"subitem_text_value":"Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands"}]},"item_access_right":{"attribute_name":"アクセス権","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_access_right":"metadata only access","subitem_access_right_uri":"http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Chang, Chia-Lin"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"97027","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Franses, Philip Hans"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"97028","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"McAleer, Michael"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"97029","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"Macro-economic forecasts","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"econometric models","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"intuition","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"initial forecast","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"primary forecast","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"revised forecast","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"actual value","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"progressive forecast updates","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"forecast errors","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"JEL Classifications: C53, C22, E27, E37.","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"eng"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"technical report","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh"}]},"item_title":"Are Forecast Updates Progressive ?","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"Are Forecast Updates Progressive ?"}]},"item_type_id":"8","owner":"1","path":["7436","7434"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2013-05-31"},"publish_date":"2013-05-31","publish_status":"0","recid":"42157","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["Are Forecast Updates Progressive ?"],"weko_creator_id":"1","weko_shared_id":null},"updated":"2022-12-19T04:17:24.356218+00:00"}