{"created":"2021-03-01T07:02:03.676776+00:00","id":42204,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"57d58513-0cfd-4282-903b-2244d79de448"},"_deposit":{"id":"42204","owners":[],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"42204"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp:00042204","sets":["62:7433:7434","9:7435:7436"]},"item_8_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2012-04","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicVolumeNumber":"CIRJE-F-846","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F"}]}]},"item_8_description_13":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_8_description_5":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"Forecasting welfare caseloads has become more important than ever in Japan. One reason is the magnitude of the recent increase in its welfare caseloads. Given that most previous studies only concern US cases and have not exploited recent developments in the literature, this study employs several methods (exponential smoothing, ARIMA, LSTAR, VAR, and a set of forecast combinations) to forecast Japanese welfare caseloads and compare their performances. While a VAR model and a forecast-combination model tend to outperform the other methods in pseudo real-time forecasting, a simple average forecast-combination method appears to outperform the other methods in real-time forecasting. In particular, the method predicts that PA caseload in Japan would surpass 1.7 million by the beginning of 2016, an approximately 20% increase from that at the beginning of 2011.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_8_description_6":{"attribute_name":"内容記述","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_8_publisher_20":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"日本経済国際共同センター"}]},"item_8_relation_25":{"attribute_name":"関係URI","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_relation_type_id":{"subitem_relation_type_id_text":"http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2012/2012cf846ab.html","subitem_relation_type_select":"URI"}}]},"item_8_source_id_10":{"attribute_name":"書誌レコードID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"AA11450569","subitem_source_identifier_type":"NCID"}]},"item_8_subject_15":{"attribute_name":"日本十進分類法","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"335","subitem_subject_scheme":"NDC"}]},"item_8_text_21":{"attribute_name":"出版者別名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy"}]},"item_8_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo"}]},"item_access_right":{"attribute_name":"アクセス権","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_access_right":"metadata only access","subitem_access_right_uri":"http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Hayashi, Masayoshi"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"97141","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"Public assistance","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"welfare caseloads","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"forecast combinations","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"Japan","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"JEL classification: C53, H75, H68, I32, H68","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"eng"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"technical report","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh"}]},"item_title":"Forecasting Welfare Caseloads : The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"Forecasting Welfare Caseloads : The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program"}]},"item_type_id":"8","owner":"1","path":["7436","7434"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2013-05-31"},"publish_date":"2013-05-31","publish_status":"0","recid":"42204","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["Forecasting Welfare Caseloads : The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program"],"weko_creator_id":"1","weko_shared_id":null},"updated":"2022-12-19T04:17:24.899791+00:00"}