{"created":"2021-03-01T07:02:48.916826+00:00","id":42869,"links":{},"metadata":{"_buckets":{"deposit":"882e84db-e08a-43c8-a024-7685c6f7b8f6"},"_deposit":{"id":"42869","owners":[],"pid":{"revision_id":0,"type":"depid","value":"42869"},"status":"published"},"_oai":{"id":"oai:repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp:00042869","sets":["62:7433:7434","9:7435:7436"]},"item_8_biblio_info_7":{"attribute_name":"書誌情報","attribute_value_mlt":[{"bibliographicIssueDates":{"bibliographicIssueDate":"2010-03","bibliographicIssueDateType":"Issued"},"bibliographicVolumeNumber":"CIRJE-F-729","bibliographic_titles":[{"bibliographic_title":"Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F"}]}]},"item_8_description_13":{"attribute_name":"フォーマット","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"application/pdf","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_8_description_5":{"attribute_name":"抄録","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"Macroeconomic forecasts are frequently produced, published, discussed and used. The formal evaluation of such forecasts has a long research history. Recently, a new angle to the evaluation of forecasts has been addressed, and in this review we analyse some recent developments from that perspective. The literature on forecast evaluation predominantly assumes that macroeconomic forecasts are generated from econometric models. In practice, however, most macroeconomic forecasts, such as those from the IMF, World Bank, OECD, Federal Reserve Board, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the ECB, are based on econometric model forecasts as well as on human intuition. This seemingly inevitable combination renders most of these forecasts biased and, as such, their evaluation becomes non-standard. In this review, we consider the evaluation of two forecasts in which: (i) the two forecasts are generated from two distinct econometric models; (ii) one forecast is generated from an econometric model and the other is obtained as a combination of a model, the other forecast, and intuition; and (iii) the two forecasts are generated from two distinct combinations of different models and intuition. It is shown that alternative tools are needed to compare and evaluate the forecasts in each of these three situations. These alternative techniques are illustrated by comparing the forecasts from the Federal Reserve Board and the FOMC on inflation, unemployment and real GDP growth.","subitem_description_type":"Abstract"}]},"item_8_description_6":{"attribute_name":"内容記述","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_description":"Forthcoming in Journalof Economic Surveys.","subitem_description_type":"Other"},{"subitem_description":"本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと","subitem_description_type":"Other"}]},"item_8_publisher_20":{"attribute_name":"出版者","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_publisher":"日本経済国際共同センター"}]},"item_8_relation_25":{"attribute_name":"関係URI","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_relation_type_id":{"subitem_relation_type_id_text":"http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2010/2010cf729ab.html","subitem_relation_type_select":"URI"}}]},"item_8_source_id_10":{"attribute_name":"書誌レコードID","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_source_identifier":"AA11450569","subitem_source_identifier_type":"NCID"}]},"item_8_subject_15":{"attribute_name":"日本十進分類法","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"335","subitem_subject_scheme":"NDC"}]},"item_8_text_21":{"attribute_name":"出版者別名","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy"}]},"item_8_text_4":{"attribute_name":"著者所属","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_text_value":"Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands"},{"subitem_text_value":"Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands"}]},"item_access_right":{"attribute_name":"アクセス権","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_access_right":"metadata only access","subitem_access_right_uri":"http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb"}]},"item_creator":{"attribute_name":"著者","attribute_type":"creator","attribute_value_mlt":[{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Franses, Philip Hans"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"98564","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"McAleer, Michael"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"98565","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]},{"creatorNames":[{"creatorName":"Legerstee, Rianne"}],"nameIdentifiers":[{"nameIdentifier":"98566","nameIdentifierScheme":"WEKO"}]}]},"item_keyword":{"attribute_name":"キーワード","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_subject":"Macroeconomic forecasts","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"econometric models","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"human intuition","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"biased forecasts","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"forecast performance","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"forecast evaluation","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"forecast comparison","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"},{"subitem_subject":"JEL Classifications: C22, C51, C52, C53, E27, E37.","subitem_subject_scheme":"Other"}]},"item_language":{"attribute_name":"言語","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_language":"eng"}]},"item_resource_type":{"attribute_name":"資源タイプ","attribute_value_mlt":[{"resourcetype":"technical report","resourceuri":"http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh"}]},"item_title":"Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts : A Review of Some Recent Developments","item_titles":{"attribute_name":"タイトル","attribute_value_mlt":[{"subitem_title":"Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts : A Review of Some Recent Developments"}]},"item_type_id":"8","owner":"1","path":["7436","7434"],"pubdate":{"attribute_name":"公開日","attribute_value":"2017-01-17"},"publish_date":"2017-01-17","publish_status":"0","recid":"42869","relation_version_is_last":true,"title":["Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts : A Review of Some Recent Developments"],"weko_creator_id":"1","weko_shared_id":null},"updated":"2022-12-19T04:18:01.048646+00:00"}