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2000年伊豆諸島の地震で試みられた活動予測 : 直前予測・短期予測の詳細
https://doi.org/10.15083/0000032577
https://doi.org/10.15083/0000032577ea7d3426-3b3e-472b-a3ae-c6ccb7868447
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
ji0774003.pdf (1.1 MB)
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| Item type | 紀要論文 / Departmental Bulletin Paper(1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2008-05-30 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | 2000年伊豆諸島の地震で試みられた活動予測 : 直前予測・短期予測の詳細 | |||||
| 言語 | ja | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | jpn | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Izu Islands | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | earthquake prediction | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | imminent prediction | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | short-term prediction | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 | |||||
| タイプ | departmental bulletin paper | |||||
| ID登録 | ||||||
| ID登録 | 10.15083/0000032577 | |||||
| ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||
| その他のタイトル | ||||||
| その他のタイトル | Experimental prediction of the Izu Islands earthquakes in 2000 : Detailed description on the imminent and short-term predictions | |||||
| 著者 |
山科, 健一郎
× 山科, 健一郎 |
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| 著者別名 | ||||||
| 識別子Scheme | WEKO | |||||
| 識別子 | 125855 | |||||
| 姓名 | Yamashina, Ken'ichiro | |||||
| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | 東京大学地震研究所 | |||||
| 抄録 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
| 内容記述 | During the seismic activity in 2000 in the Izu Islands region, Japan, an experimental study on earthquake prediction was carried out based on several empirical rules. For the imminent prediction, hypothesis A was applied from 15 to 28 July 2000: that is, when earthquakes with similar magnitudes were observed at intervals of less than 2 hours, a larger event would occur within about 4 hours. The alarm period was then changed to 12 hours (hypothesis B), and the intervals of a pair of earthquakes and the alarm period were changed to 24 and 48 hours, respectively (hypothesis C). According to these assumptions, 13 cases out of 25 imminent predictions were successful. Shortterm predictions for an alarm period of several days to 21 days were also attempted from 7 July to 13 October 2000, with the following assumptions: when small earthquakes began to occur adjacent to the previously active area, it would be a precursory signal of a forthcoming larger event within several days (hypothesis D). In addition, when earthquakes with similar magnitudes occurred within 7 days, a larger event might be expected within 7 or 21 days (hypothesis E or E', respectively). Among the 13 short-term predictions, 8 were successful. Although the success rates were not high, such information would still be useful to prompt an examination of the available data from various observations or to prepare for the possible execution of a governmental disaster mitigation program. Accumulating such experience will also be useful for finding an effective prediction method and an appropriate expression to announce the forecast. | |||||
| 書誌情報 |
東京大學地震研究所彙報 = Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo 巻 77, 号 4, p. 343-358, 発行日 2003-03-31 |
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| ISSN | ||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | ISSN | |||||
| 収録物識別子 | 00408972 | |||||
| 書誌レコードID | ||||||
| 収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
| 収録物識別子 | AN00162258 | |||||
| フォーマット | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | application/pdf | |||||
| 日本十進分類法 | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | NDC | |||||
| 主題 | 453 | |||||
| 出版者 | ||||||
| 出版者 | 東京大学地震研究所 | |||||
| 出版者別名 | ||||||
| Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo | ||||||
