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The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly : An Inquiry into the Causes and Nature of Credit Cycles
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/2569
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/2569e5e7dc3c-f92b-4b7a-aaf3-5d6535ee0fa2
Item type | テクニカルレポート / Technical Report(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2013-06-03 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly : An Inquiry into the Causes and Nature of Credit Cycles | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | wealth-dependent borrowing constraints | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | heterogeneity of projects | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | aggregate demand spillovers | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | credit multiplier effect | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題 | JEL classification numbers: E32, E44 | |||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||
タイプ | technical report | |||||
アクセス権 | ||||||
アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||
アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||
著者 |
Matsuyama, Kiminori
× Matsuyama, Kiminori |
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著者所属 | ||||||
著者所属 | Northwestern University | |||||
抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | This paper builds models of nonlinear dynamics in the aggregate investment and borrower net worth and uses them to study the causes and nature of endogenous credit cycles. The basic model has two types of projects: the Good and the Bad. The Bad is highly productive, but, unlike the Good, it generates less aggregate demand spillovers and contributes little to improve borrower net worth. Furthermore, it is relatively difficult to finance externally due to the agency problem. With a low net worth, the agents cannot finance the Bad, and much of the credit goes to finance the Good, even when the Bad projects are more profitable than the Good projects. This over-investment to the Good creates a boom and generates high aggregate demand spillovers. This leads to an improvement in borrower net worth, which makes it possible for the agents to finance the Bad. This shift in the composition of the credit from the Good to the Bad at the peak of the boom causes a deterioration of net worth. The whole process repeats itself. Endogenous fluctuations occur, as the Good breeds the Bad, and the Bad destroys the Good. The model is then extended to add a third type of the projects, the Ugly, which are unproductive but easy to finance. With a low net worth, the Good competes with the Ugly, creating the credit multiplier effect; with a high net worth, the Good competes with the Bad, creating the credit reversal effect. By combining these two effects, this model generates intermittency phenomena, i.e., relatively long periods of small and persistent movements punctuated intermittently by seemingly random-looking behaviors. Along these cycles, the economy exhibits asymmetric fluctuations; it experiences a long and slow process of recovery from a recession, followed by a rapid expansion, and possibly after a period of high volatility, plunges into a recession. | |||||
内容記述 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | 本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと | |||||
書誌情報 |
Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F 巻 2004-CF-294, 発行日 2004-08 |
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書誌レコードID | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
収録物識別子 | AA11450569 | |||||
フォーマット | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | application/pdf | |||||
日本十進分類法 | ||||||
主題 | 330 | |||||
主題Scheme | NDC | |||||
出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | 日本経済国際共同センター | |||||
出版者別名 | ||||||
Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy | ||||||
関係URI | ||||||
識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
関連識別子 | http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2004/2004cf294ab.html |