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  1. 117 経済学研究科・経済学部
  2. 70 日本経済国際共同センター
  3. Discussion Paper F series (in English)
  1. 0 資料タイプ別
  2. 60 レポート類
  3. 061 ディスカッションペーパー

Do Wild Fluctuations in Quarterly Inventory Investment Data Matter? : A Study of Japanese GDP Statistics, 1994-2010

http://hdl.handle.net/2261/55373
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/55373
5ee53727-5d77-49f0-8c5a-928b4cd6feef
Item type テクニカルレポート / Technical Report(1)
公開日 2013-09-17
タイトル
タイトル Do Wild Fluctuations in Quarterly Inventory Investment Data Matter? : A Study of Japanese GDP Statistics, 1994-2010
言語
言語 eng
資源タイプ
資源 http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh
タイプ technical report
アクセス権
アクセス権 metadata only access
アクセス権URI http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb
著者 Miwa, Yoshiro

× Miwa, Yoshiro

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Miwa, Yoshiro

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著者所属
著者所属 Osaka Gakuin University
著者所属
著者所属 University of Tokyo
抄録
内容記述タイプ Abstract
内容記述 For more than half a century, inventory investment has attracted wide attention as a major cause of short-term macroeconomic fluctuations, and the mechanisms involved have been the focus of many major studies. Yet microeconomists and business people familiar with corporate behavior have frequently expressed misgivings about the enterprise. Using Japanese quarterly GDP inventory investment statistics both by commodity and by category, 1994~2010, I investigate the nature of quarterly inventory statistics and the inventory investment behavior, and draw two conclusions. First, statisticians estimate the quarterly statistics under severe time constraints, and their resulting figures incorporate seasonal variations which dominate the quarterly fluctuations. This fluctuation mostly disappears in annual data. Secondly, when I examine the inventory variation after the Lehman Shock in the autumn of 2008, I find neither a notable increase in inventory stock nor a long-run stock adjustment process. Given the size of this unforeseen exogenous shock, most observers expected a large inventory stock accumulation to follow. That the accumulation did not follow suggests that the focus on inventory variation may be misplaced. For inventory investment data estimation, Japan is an ideal OECD country, with generous statistics availability. The conclusions of this research, drawn from the quarterly GDP inventory statistics, will stimulate the interest both in the study of inventory data in other countries focusing on its estimation process and source statistics, and in the great variety of inventory investment. At the same time, the conclusions pose a grave implication not only for re-evaluation of the literature in inventory investment variations but also for other research topics in macroeconomics like monetary transmission mechanisms including “financial accelerator” theory.
内容記述
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと
書誌情報 Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F

巻 CIRJE-F-903, 発行日 2013-09
書誌レコードID
収録物識別子タイプ NCID
収録物識別子 AA11450569
フォーマット
内容記述タイプ Other
内容記述 application/pdf
出版者
出版者 日本経済国際共同センター
出版者別名
Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy
関係URI
識別子タイプ URI
関連識別子 http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2013/2013cf903ab.html
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