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The Mechanism of Inflation Expectation Formation among Consumers
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/59328
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/5932844d22fcb-de78-4670-9071-34287889f781
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
wp082.pdf (678.6 kB)
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| Item type | テクニカルレポート / Technical Report(1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2016-04-04 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | The Mechanism of Inflation Expectation Formation among Consumers | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | inflation expectations | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Bayesian updating | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | rational expectation | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | randomized survey experiments | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||
| タイプ | technical report | |||||
| 著者 |
Abe, Naohito
× Abe, Naohito× Ueno, Yuko |
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| 著者所属 | ||||||
| 著者所属 | Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University | |||||
| 抄録 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
| 内容記述 | How do we determine our expectations of inflation? Because inflation expectations greatly influence the economy, researchers have long considered this question. Using a survey with randomized experiments among 15,000 consumers, we investigate the mechanism of inflation expectation formation. Learning theory predicts that once people obtain new information on future inflation, they change their expectations. In this regard, such expectations are the weighted average of prior belief and information. We confirm that the weight for prior belief is a decreasing function of the degree of uncertainty. Our results also show that monetary authority information affects consumers to a greater extent when expectations are updated. With such information, consumers change their inflation expectations by 32% from the average. This finding supports improvements to monetary policy publicity. | |||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | 2012～2016年度科学研究費補助金[基盤研究(S)]「長期デフレの解明」(研究代表者 東京大学経済学研究科・渡辺努, 課題番号：24223003) | |||||
| 書誌情報 |
JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research (S) Understanding Persistent Deflation in Japan Working Paper Series 巻 082, 発行日 2016-03 |
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| 出版者 | ||||||
| 出版者 | UTokyo Price Project | |||||
| 関係URI | ||||||
| 識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
| 関連識別子 | http://www.price.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/researchdata/ | |||||
