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Forecasting Welfare Caseloads : The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/51494
http://hdl.handle.net/2261/51494ba2ace44-4cab-40c2-a889-cace85823e82
Item type | テクニカルレポート / Technical Report(1) | |||||
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公開日 | 2013-05-31 | |||||
タイトル | ||||||
タイトル | Forecasting Welfare Caseloads : The Case of the Japanese Public Assistance Program | |||||
言語 | ||||||
言語 | eng | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Public assistance | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | welfare caseloads | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | forecast combinations | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | Japan | |||||
キーワード | ||||||
主題Scheme | Other | |||||
主題 | JEL classification: C53, H75, H68, I32, H68 | |||||
資源タイプ | ||||||
資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18gh | |||||
資源タイプ | technical report | |||||
アクセス権 | ||||||
アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||
アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||
著者 |
Hayashi, Masayoshi
× Hayashi, Masayoshi |
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著者所属 | ||||||
値 | Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo | |||||
抄録 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
内容記述 | Forecasting welfare caseloads has become more important than ever in Japan. One reason is the magnitude of the recent increase in its welfare caseloads. Given that most previous studies only concern US cases and have not exploited recent developments in the literature, this study employs several methods (exponential smoothing, ARIMA, LSTAR, VAR, and a set of forecast combinations) to forecast Japanese welfare caseloads and compare their performances. While a VAR model and a forecast-combination model tend to outperform the other methods in pseudo real-time forecasting, a simple average forecast-combination method appears to outperform the other methods in real-time forecasting. In particular, the method predicts that PA caseload in Japan would surpass 1.7 million by the beginning of 2016, an approximately 20% increase from that at the beginning of 2011. | |||||
内容記述 | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | 本文フィルはリンク先を参照のこと | |||||
書誌情報 |
Discussion paper series. CIRJE-F 巻 CIRJE-F-846, 発行日 2012-04 |
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書誌レコードID | ||||||
収録物識別子タイプ | NCID | |||||
収録物識別子 | AA11450569 | |||||
フォーマット | ||||||
内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
内容記述 | application/pdf | |||||
日本十進分類法 | ||||||
主題Scheme | NDC | |||||
主題 | 335 | |||||
出版者 | ||||||
出版者 | 日本経済国際共同センター | |||||
出版者別名 | ||||||
値 | Center for International Research on the Japanese Economy | |||||
関係URI | ||||||
識別子タイプ | URI | |||||
関連識別子 | http://www.cirje.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/research/dp/2012/2012cf846ab.html |